财政政策与货币政策的动态调控效应*——基于时变参数向量自回归模型的检验

本文廓清了财政政策与货币政策搭配动态调控宏观经济的机理，揭示了两者协调影响经济的“黑箱”机制及其在经济不同阶段的搭配方式；运用中国2004—2019年的经济季度数据，构建TVP SV VAR模型探究两类政策对宏观经济的调控效应。研究发现：财政政策与货币政策共同把控流动性“闸门”实现互动协调；财政政策搭配货币政策具有时变性，在整体上“同向发力”推动经济发展；两类政策对产出的影响并非始终如理论一致，在结构层面仍有优化靶向性操作的余地。     

长江经济带人才集聚水平测度及时空演变研究——基于价值链视角

基于价值链视角，构建涵盖人才资源在区域空间层面集聚生成、地区配置、效能产出3个维度在内的区域人才集聚水平评价指标体系，采用专家咨询AHP-信息熵组合赋权法构建综合评价模型和耦合协调度模型，对2010—2018年长江经济带沿线省市人才集聚水平进行测度与时空演化特征分析。结果表明，就长江经济带整体而言，考察期内地区人才集聚水平总体呈现逐年上升态势，但仍处于低水平状态；沿线省市人才集聚水平差异显著，缩小趋势渐缓，整体呈现局部高水平、全局低效率的不利境况；各省市人才集聚水平关键维度的耦合协调度整体呈显著波动递增态势，但内部耦合协调度存在不平衡发展问题，影响地区人才集聚水平整体提升。为提升长江经济带人才集聚水平，推进沿线地区协调发展，需强化区域人才合作机制，采取差别化精准策略破解沿线地区人才集聚低水平、不协调的短板因素。     

Effects of broadband availability on total factor productivity in service sector firms: Evidence from Ireland

While broadband is widely believed to augment productivity, there is little firm-level evidence of a generalised causal effect. In this paper we examine whether the introduction of digital subscriber line (DSL) broadband services increased firms' productivity in nine sub-sectors within the services and distribution sector in Ireland from 2006 to 2012. Firm-level panel data on firms' characteristics are linked to spatial information on the rollout of DSL. While we do not find significant productivity effects in the services sectors taken together, we do find positive and significant effects on firm's total factor productivity in Information & Communication and Administrative & Support Services.     

Analytical approximations of local‐Heston volatility model and error analysis

This paper studies the expansion of an option price (with bounded Lipschitz payoff) in a stochastic volatility model including a local volatility component. The stochastic volatility is a square root process, which is widely used for modeling the behavior of the variance process (Heston model). The local volatility part is of general form, requiring only appropriate growth and boundedness assumptions. We rigorously establish tight error estimates of our expansions, using Malliavin calculus. The error analysis, which requires a careful treatment because of the lack of weak differentiability of the model, is interesting on its own. Moreover, in the particular case of call–put options, we also provide expansions of the Black–Scholes implied volatility that allow to obtain very simple formulas that are fast to compute compared to the Monte Carlo approach and maintain a very competitive accuracy.     

Error analysis of finite difference and Markov chain approximations for option pricing

Mijatovi? and Pistorius proposed an efficient Markov chain approximation method for pricing European and barrier options in general one‐dimensional Markovian models. However, sharp convergence rates of this method for realistic financial payoffs, which are nonsmooth, are rarely available. In this paper, we solve this problem for general one‐dimensional diffusion models, which play a fundamental role in financial applications. For such models, the Markov chain approximation method is equivalent to the method of lines using the central difference. Our analysis is based on the spectral representation of the exact solution and the approximate solution. By establishing the convergence rate for the eigenvalues and the eigenfunctions, we obtain sharp convergence rates for the transition density and the price of options with nonsmooth payoffs. In particular, we show that for call‐/put‐type payoffs, convergence is second order, while for digital‐type payoffs, convergence is generally only first order. Furthermore, we provide theoretical justification for two well‐known smoothing techniques that can restore second‐order convergence for digital‐type payoffs and explain oscillations observed in the convergence for options with nonsmooth payoffs. As an extension, we also establish sharp convergence rates for European options for a rich class of Markovian jump models constructed from diffusions via subordination. The theoretical estimates are confirmed using numerical examples.     

Deunionization and job polarization – a macroeconomic model analysis for a small open economy

Declining unionization rates and job polarization are two important labor market developments of recent decades. A large body of literature has analyzed these phenomena separately, but little has been done to see whether there is a link between them. We employ a macroeconomic model for a small open economy with a large input–output core to analyze how deunionization may cause job polarization. Our analysis shows that medium-skilled workers are negatively affected by deunionization, mainly as a result of the heterogeneity of the elasticities of substitution between different types of labor. While the elasticities of substitution between high- and medium-skilled labor are relatively low, the elasticities of substitution between medium- and low-skilled are relatively high. As a result, when deunionization leads to increased wage dispersion, we find that demand for low-skilled increases at the expense of medium-skilled labor, thus yielding a more polarized labor market.     

新制度经济学视角下的中国农地制度变迁：回顾与展望

研究目的:分析总结中国农地制度变迁的路径特征、决定条件和影响因素,并展望进一步研究方向。研究方法:文献分析法。研究结果:(1)改革开放以来的中国农地制度变迁呈现出一个较清晰的路径,即改革始终沿着市场取向、明晰产权、稳定地权的方向演进;(2)农地使用权制度改革的成功源于诱致性变迁与强制性变迁的结合,即弹性的中央政策制定、渐进式的地方实施以及具有学习效应的农户认知三者的有机互动,并体现出制度变迁的"共生演化"特征及其蕴含的"适应性效率";(3)新制度经济学是解释中国经济改革和农地制度变迁的有效工具,然而由于经典的新制度经济学本质上的静态性以及国家理论的缺乏,难以对现实世界的各类制度变迁给出一般化的解释。研究结论:基于经典的新制度经济学,进一步整合行为经济学、机制设计理论、演化博弈论等理论工具,超越"强制性—诱致性变迁"二分法,构建一个真正动态的制度变迁模型是一个重要研究方向。     

How do valuations impact outcomes of asset sales with heterogeneous bidders?

Differences among bidder type-specific outcomes of asset sales are theoretically related to differences in bidders’ valuations and participation. The lead application to quantify these relations is takeover auctions: bidders are classified into strategic and financial, and bids are available. I structurally estimate valuations from all bids. The positive difference in premiums between strategic and financial acquirers is driven by the difference in dispersions of valuations (e.g., strategic bidders’ synergies are more dispersed) and the set of auction participants. The difference in average valuations is relatively unimportant. My approach can help explain outcomes of asset sales, even in settings with limited bidder data.     

新中国成立70年农村基本经营制度的历史演进与发展取向——基于农村土地制度和农业经营制度的改革联动视角

研究目的:剖析农村土地制度和农业经营制度的关系,为完善农村基本经营制度提供参考。研究方法:比较分析法、文献研究法。研究结果:新中国成立70年来,农村基本经营制度先后历经新中国成立初期的"农民所有、家庭经营"、改革开放前期的"集体所有、集体经营"到改革开放后期的"集体所有、均田承包、家庭经营",再到现阶段的"集体所有、均田承包和多元经营"4个阶段。在这个过程当中,农村基本经营制度既遵循人口与土地关系、生存与发展关系以及政府与市场关系的大逻辑,又遵循着农村土地制度的"产权逻辑"、农业经营制度的"生产逻辑"等小逻辑。研究结论:为深化农村基本经营制度变革,需加强农村土地制度与农业经营制度联动改革的制度设计,发挥要素、组织和制度的作用,发展多种形式的适度规模经营,实现小农户与现代农业发展的有机衔接。     

The Non‐Observed Economy in Portugal: The monetary model and the MIMIC model

This paper offers estimations for the Portuguese path of the Non‐Observed Economy (NOE), in the period 1970–2015, through two seminal approaches: monetary method and the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. It is observed that the tax burden and social benefits are its main causes. Then, to get a more in‐depth understanding of the phenomenon, it provides a study of the Granger causality between the NOE and the official Gross Domestic Product (GDP), emphasizing the implications of the NOE on the Portuguese economy. Evidence has been found for the existence of bidirectional causality between the NOE and the GDP, suggesting that the formal economy affects the NOE, and conversely that the NOE affects the economic growth.